BiologyHiranyagarbha · Class 11-12
Prevalence = Incidence × Duration: jab number sach chhupa le
2005 mein India mein leprosy ko 'eliminated as a public health problem' maana gaya. Phir bhi naye case aate rahe. Ek number gira aur beemari chalti rahi, yeh kaise?
Socho pehle… phir dekho jawab
Kyunki prevalence (kisi samay kitne log register par hain) aur incidence (ek avadhi mein kitne naye case aaye) alag cheezein hain. Steady state mein P ≈ I × D, jahan D beemari ki ausat avadhi hai. Ilaaj ki avadhi chhoti hui toh D ghata aur P gira, chahe I wahi raha.
Definitions: prevalence = kisi samay par kul maujooda case (per 10,000 log); incidence = ek avadhi mein naye case. Model: P ≈ I × D (steady state, kam prevalence par). Udaharan (sirf samajhne ke liye): I = 1 naya case per 10,000 per saal aur D = 2 saal, toh P ≈ 2 per 10,000. D ko 6 mahine kar do, toh P ≈ 0.5 per 10,000. Failna utna hi, register chaar guna chhota.
Card mein yahi hua: ilaaj chhota hone se register chhota hua, prevalence 1 per 10,000 se neeche gayi aur 2005 mein WHO ki 'elimination' paribhasha poori hui. Par surveillance general health services mein mil gayi, aur 2010s ki shuruaat mein disability phir badhne lagi. 2024-25 mein national prevalence 0.57 per 10,000 thi.
Truer signals: naye case, bachchon mein naye case (recent transmission) aur grade-2 disability (der se pakad). 2025-26 mein incidence anumaan se 41%, child incidence 91.6% aur grade-2 disability rate 34% upar raha.
Trade-off: zyada screening (70 crore se zyada log) record hone wale incidence ko badhaati hai, kyunki chhupe case saamne aate hain. Toh badha number achhi jaanch bhi ho sakta hai aur zyada failaav bhi. Disability ka badhna batata hai ki kai log ab bhi der se pahunch rahe hain.
Ghar pe try karo
P ≈ I × D se table banao: I = 2 per 10,000 per saal rakho aur D = 3 saal, 1 saal aur 0.5 saal lo. Har baar P nikaalo. Phir likho: kis number ko dekh kar tum kahoge ki failna sach mein ruka? (Ye numbers sirf udaharan hain.)
Wow!
Ek beemari 'eliminated as a public health problem' ho sakti hai aur phir bhi naye log beemar ho sakte hain, kyunki is paribhasha ka matlab zero case nahi hai!
3 sawaal
- P ≈ I × D mein D ghata aur I wahi raha, toh?
Jawab dekho
P ghatega. P, D ke anupaat mein hai; D ghata toh P ghatega, chahe naye case utne hi hon.
- Recent transmission ka sabse saaf signal kya hai?
Jawab dekho
Bachchon mein naye case. Bachche mein naya case haal ke failaav ko dikhata hai.
- Leprosy ke liye WHO ka 'elimination as a public health problem' kya hai?
Jawab dekho
Registered prevalence 1 per 10,000 se kam. Yeh paribhasha prevalence 1 per 10,000 se kam ki hai, zero case ki nahi.
NCERT se jodo: NCERT Class 12 Biology — human health and disease (infectious rog); Class 11-12 Maths — dar aur anupaat