PaisaHiranyagarbha · Class 11-12
Headline, core aur base effect: mehangai ka number padhna seekho
Daam is mahine lagbhag wahi rahein, phir bhi saalana mehangai badh sakti hai. Kaise? Jawab pichhle saal mein chhupa hai.
Socho pehle… phir dekho jawab
Saalana mehangai is mahine ke CPI ko pichhle saal ke usi mahine se milati hai. Agar pichhle saal daam asaamanya roop se kam the (low base), toh aaj ki dar oonchi dikhegi — ise base effect kehte hain.
Base effect (card): 22 September 2025 se GST mein vyapak katauti hui thi, isliye ek saal pehle ke daam kam the. Aaj ke daam unke saamne zyada lagte hain; yeh asar October mein, katauti ke baad ke pehle poore mahine, aur badhta hai.
Headline vs core: September 2026 mein headline 5.54%, khaana 7.74%, aur core (khaana aur eendhan hata kar) 4.1% se 4.3%. Core ka badhna batata hai ki jhatka khaane se baaki tokri mein phail raha hai — card ke anusaar 12 mein se 11 vibhaag tez hue, aur 'restaurants and cafés' ki mehangai February ke 2.73% se 9.39% hui, mehngi cooking gas ke kaaran.
Supply shock vs demand: repo rate maang par kaam karti hai — karz mehnga, kharch kam, bechne wale daam aasani se nahi badha paate. Par woh pyaaz nahi uga sakti. MPC ka asli nishana: food shock ko daam badhane ki aadat (expectations) banne se rokna.
Trade-off: jaldi rate badhaana mehangai ki ummeed rokta hai par vikas dheema karta hai; intezaar vikas bachata hai par vishwasniyata ka khatra laata hai. Isliye flexible inflation targeting: 4% lakshya, par band ke andar lacheelapan.
Ghar pe try karo
Ek kalpanik table banao: teen mahine ka 'pichhle saal ka CPI' aur 'is saal ka CPI', jahan pichhle saal beech wale mahine mein CPI achanak gira tha. Har mahine ki saalana dar nikalo aur dekho base effect number ko kaise uchhalta hai.
Wow!
Is saal daam bilkul na badhein, tab bhi saalana dar badal sakti hai — kyunki tulna ka aadhar, pichhle saal ka number, har mahine badalta hai!
3 sawaal
- Base effect kya hai?
Jawab dekho
Pichhle saal ke usi mahine ke asaamanya daam se saalana dar ka badalna. Saalana dar pichhle saal ke usi mahine se tulna hai; asaamanya base dar ko upar-neeche karta hai.
- Core mehangai mein kya chhoda jaata hai?
Jawab dekho
Khaana aur eendhan. Core = jhoolne wale khaane aur eendhan ke bina.
- Repo rate badhaane ka asar mukhya roop se kis par padta hai?
Jawab dekho
Maang (karz aur kharch). Repo maang par kaam karti hai; supply shock ko seedha nahi badal sakti.
NCERT se jodo: NCERT Class 12 Macroeconomics — money, banking aur price level (idea in words)