UPSC Darpan

PaisaMarichi · UPSC

CPI ko Todkar Padho: Supply Shock, Base Effect aur Second-round — Kya Repo Pyaaz Uga Sakta Hai?

September CPI 5.54%, chautha mahina 4% lakshya se upar; 71 basis point ki badhat mein 62 khaane se. MPC ke liye sawaal: yeh jhatka guzar jaayega ya aadat banega?

Socho pehle… phir dekho jawab

Number ko teen parton mein todo: (1) supply shock — pyaaz +108.09%; (2) base effect — GST katauti ke baad ka low base; (3) second-round — core 4.3%, 12 mein se 11 vibhaag tez. Teesra hi monetary policy ka asli nishana hai.

Naap: All-India CPI (Rural, Urban, Combined) NSO, MoSPI ka; naya series base 2024=100, 12 divisions; daam 1,407 shahari bazaar aur 1,465 gaon se (card). Prelims trap: CPI NSO banata hai, RBI nahi; WPI Office of the Economic Adviser (DPIIT) banata hai.

Kaanooni dhaancha: RBI Act, 1934 ki Section 45ZA ke tahat Centre, RBI se salaah karke, har paanch saal mein lakshya tay karta hai — 4% CPI, 2-6% band. Section 45ZB: chhe sadasyon ki MPC, teen RBI se aur teen Centre dwara niyukt; Governor ka casting vote.

Vishleshan: hawks (card: ICRA, Bank of Baroda) kehte hain October mein 6% ke paar, isliye December hike lakshya ki raksha karegi. Doosra paksh: repo pyaaz nahi uga sakti; storage aur processing ki kami har kamzor monsoon ko 'national inflation number' bana deti hai, aur buffer release ya export curbs jaise jaldi ke upaay kuch hafton tak hi chalte hain.

Equity aur expectations: gaon 6.08% vs shehar 4.88%; gaon ki khaane ki mehangai 8.06%. Economics Nobel 2026 (Hall, Woodford): Woodford ne dikhaya ki firms aage dekh kar daam rakhti hain, isliye bhavishya ki dar ki ummeed mehangai ko aakaar deti hai — isi se forward guidance ka mahatva.

Ghar pe try karo

Ek 250-shabd GS3 answer ka dhaancha banao: 'Supply-side mehangai mein monetary policy ki seema.' Teen hisse: number ka vibhaajan (supply, base, second-round), MPC ki bhoomika, aur dheere ke sudhaar (storage, processing). Har hisse mein card ka ek data rakho.

Wow!

Jis din Bharat ka 5.54% CPI aaya, usi din (12 October) expectations par kaam ke liye Hall aur Woodford ko Economics Nobel ki ghoshna hui!

3 sawaal

  1. All-India CPI kaun sankalit karta hai?
    Jawab dekho

    NSO, MoSPI. CPI NSO, MoSPI ka; WPI Office of the Economic Adviser, DPIIT ka.

  2. MPC ke baare mein sahi kya hai?
    Jawab dekho

    Chhe sadasya — teen RBI se, teen Centre dwara niyukt; Governor ka casting vote. Section 45ZB: chhe sadasya, Governor ka casting vote.

  3. Base effect ke baare mein sahi kya hai?
    Jawab dekho

    Pichhle saal ke usi mahine ke asaamanya daam se saalana dar badalti hai. Base effect saalana tulna ke aadhar (pichhle saal ka usi mahine ka daam) se aata hai.

NCERT se jodo: GS3 — Indian Economy (inflation, monetary policy, mobilisation of resources); GS3 — Agriculture (storage, food processing)

Baal Darpan app kholo