UPSC Darpan

International RelationsGS230 September 2026

US Troops Leave Iraq’s Last Bases After Two Decades as Iran-Aligned Groups Claim Victory

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The news

Baghdad. US forces are set to leave their last bases in Iraq by Wednesday, September 30, The Indian Express reports, citing Reuters. About 4,500 Americans died in more than two decades of war there. The withdrawal was agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and is being carried out by President Donald Trump’s administration even as it wages war on Iran. Iraqi analyst Jasim al-Bahadili said Iran gains because the coalition acted as a “counterweight” to its influence, and Iraqi experts warn Islamic State could stage a comeback. A commander of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella of Iran-backed armed groups, called it “a historic victory”. Separately, Mr. Trump denied reports that he offered Iran sanctions relief, while President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran is ready for talks but not “bullying or coercion”. Iran’s rial fell past 2.5 million to the dollar. The syllabus link is GS2 on West Asia and India’s interests.

The chain in one line: The US invades Iraq in 2003 and stays through insurgency → it returns in 2014 to fight Islamic State → Baghdad and Washington agree in 2024 on a drawdown → the US goes to war with Iran in February while the drawdown proceeds → the last bases close, leaving Iran-aligned groups stronger

Static syllabus linkage

  1. The US presence in Iraq rested on invasion, then on invitation. The US-led coalition invaded Iraq in 2003 and toppled Saddam Hussein. The 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement set the long-term relationship, and US combat troops left in 2011. They returned in 2014 at Baghdad’s request under Operation Inherent Resolve, the coalition campaign against Islamic State.
  2. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s chief oil chokepoint. The Strait of Hormuz links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, with Iran on its northern shore and Oman’s Musandam peninsula to the south. The Hindu notes that about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas moved through it before the war. Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, among India’s leading crude suppliers, depend heavily on it.

Why UPSC loves this

  1. West Asian instability reaches India through oil and diaspora. GS2 covers the “effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests” and the diaspora; this exit joins energy security and the safety of Indian workers.

Prelims nuggets

  • The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman.
  • Operation Inherent Resolve is the US-led coalition campaign against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, begun in 2014.
  • The US–Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement of 2008 governs the long-term political, economic and security relationship between the two countries.

Analysis

  1. The exit hands Iran a strategic gain even as Iran loses the war’s economic battle. With US troops gone, Iran-backed groups gain freedom inside Iraq, and Iran gains depth on its western border. Yet The Indian Express editorial notes that Gulf crude shipments are back to just under 80% of prewar flows, Saudi Arabia has repaired its East-West pipeline, and Iran cannot export past the US counterblockade. Iran is winning ground and losing money, which explains why Tehran is now keener to talk.
  2. Lens — National interest and global commons: Hormuz is a shared lifeline, not Iran’s bargaining chip. Iran’s seven-point proposal, reported by The Hindu, offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in seven days in return for the US lifting its naval blockade, granting sanctions waivers and releasing frozen funds; Mr. Trump says he rejected it. Each side treats a global shipping lane as leverage. India’s interest lies in treating Hormuz as a commons whose free passage all should guarantee, and in pressing that case with Gulf partners and at the UN.
  3. A power vacuum can revive Islamic State. Islamic State grew in 2014 in the space left by a weak Iraqi state and sectarian militias, and a region distracted by war offers similar space now. For India, a revived Islamic State means risk to workers in the region and a propaganda boost for online radicalisation at home.

Possible Mains question

Discuss the implications of the US withdrawal from Iraq for India’s energy security. (10 marks, 150 words)

Model approach

  1. Directive — Discuss. Set out the main implications in a balanced way, with one clear line of argument.
  2. Introduction — US forces leave Iraq’s last bases on September 30 amid the Iran war. About 20 words.
  3. Iran-aligned groups gain, raising risk around a key supplier. Iraq is among India’s leading crude suppliers.
  4. Hormuz, not Iraq, is the real exposure. Value addition — flows at just under 80% of prewar in September; Iran’s seven-point Hormuz offer. Diagram: map of the Gulf with Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and India’s sea route.
  5. Conclusion — diversify suppliers, build strategic reserves, back free passage. About 15 words.

Administrator's brainstorm

As Secretary, Petroleum, what would you prepare for if Iraq becomes unstable after the US exit?

I would line up fallback cargoes from the Americas and West Africa, check that strategic petroleum reserves are full and that refiners can process alternative grades, and coordinate evacuation plans for Indian workers in Iraq with the External Affairs Ministry. The aim is that a shock raises our costs but does not stop our supply.