UPSC Darpan

International RelationsGS212 October 2026

Ganga Water Treaty comes up for renewal in December as Dhaka seeks a ‘techno-political’ deal

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The news

New Delhi. M Riaz Hamidullah, Bangladesh’s outgoing High Commissioner, who left India on October 10, spoke at an Idea Exchange with The Indian Express. The interviewer noted that the Ganga Water Treaty is “due for renewal this December” and that States in India are demanding it not be renewed. Mr Hamidullah said water needs “a techno-political approach based on mutuality of interests and inter-dependence”. Bangladesh, he said, is water-abundant for five months and “practically dry” for seven, and shares “just 7 per cent” of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin. Bangladesh buys 2,500 MW of Indian power. He put economic interaction at “a minimum of US$ 28 to $30 billion”, over double the formal $13 billion trade, and criticised people being “arbitrarily pushed in across the border”.

The chain in one line: Farakka diverts dry-season water to Kolkata port → Bangladesh gets less from January to May → the 1996 treaty fixes ten-day shares for thirty years → the term ends in December 2026 → States’ demands and Dhaka’s linkage politics shape renewal

Static syllabus linkage

  1. The treaty’s formula and safeguards. Signed at New Delhi on 12 December 1996, the treaty splits the flow 50:50 when Farakka has 70,000 cusecs or less; between 70,000 and 75,000, Bangladesh gets 35,000 and India the balance; at 75,000 or more, India gets 40,000 and Bangladesh the balance. Each side is guaranteed 35,000 cusecs in three alternate ten-day periods between 11 March and 10 May (Annexure I). If no agreement follows a review, India must release at least 90% of Bangladesh’s share (Article XI).
  2. The Union makes treaties; States run the rivers. Treaties are a Union subject (Entry 14), and Article 253 lets Parliament legislate on any subject to implement one. Water is a State subject (Entry 17, State List), subject to Entry 56 of the Union List on inter-State rivers. No Article requires a State’s consent to a treaty.

Why UPSC loves this

  1. Should a State’s water needs decide the fate of a treaty with a neighbour?. GS2 lists “India and its neighbourhood — relations”. Expect three dimensions: shrinking dry-season flow, the Centre–State question in foreign policy, and linkage of water to power and migration.

Prelims nuggets

  • The India–Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission was constituted in 1972.
  • The Land Boundary Agreement with Bangladesh was given effect by the Constitution (100th Amendment) Act, 2015, which amended the First Schedule.
  • The Farakka Barrage is on the Ganga in Murshidabad district, West Bengal.

Analysis

  1. The weak point is not the split but the flows the treaty assumes. The formula works only if the water arrives. Its schedule rests on average flows of 1949–1988, and Article II asks the upper riparian only to make “every effort” to protect them. If dry-season flow keeps falling through upstream use and erratic rain, the 50:50 and below-50,000-cusec emergency clauses will trigger more often. The other view: India cannot freeze its own States’ upstream use for a neighbour. That holds, but it argues for a revised flow base, not for no treaty.
  2. Lens — Centre and States: the Union holds the pen, but a border State holds a practical veto. In law, Entry 14 and Article 253 let New Delhi sign and implement the treaty alone. In practice the barrage, Kolkata port and upstream farmers all sit in States. The Teesta deal shows the cost: a draft ready in 2011 was never signed after West Bengal objected. The strongest objection is that foreign policy cannot be hostage to one State. True, but consulting early costs less than a treaty no State will help implement.
  3. Lens — Strategic autonomy and partnership: Dhaka will bargain water with everything else. A “techno-political” approach means data plus politics: Bangladesh wants renewal judged within the whole relationship. It buys 2,500 MW of Indian power, and the envoy puts interaction at US$28-30 billion against $13 billion of formal trade. The other view: linkage hardens positions, since India will not let its border policy be priced in cusecs. Still, a neighbour that buys Indian power has a stake in a deal, and so does India, which is itself a lower riparian on the Brahmaputra.

Possible Mains question

To what extent should Indian States’ water needs shape the renewal of the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty with Bangladesh? (15 marks, 250 words)

Model approach

  1. Directive — To what extent. Judge how far States’ needs should weigh and end with a clear position.
  2. Introduction — a treaty reaches its thirtieth year. Sample: The 1996 Ganga Water Treaty, which splits the Ganga’s lean-season flow at Farakka, ends its thirty-year term in December 2026, and renewal needs both countries’ consent.
  3. Body — States’ needs are real because the treaty rests on old flows. The schedule uses 1949–88 averages. Value addition: the 50:50 split below 70,000 cusecs and the 90% fallback in Article XI.
  4. Body — the Union may sign alone but cannot implement alone. Entry 14, Article 253, Entry 17 and the stalled Teesta draft of 2011. Draw a flowchart: Ganga → Farakka → Kolkata port on one arm, Bangladesh on the other.
  5. Body — non-renewal hurts India’s wider interests. Power exports of 2,500 MW and India’s own case as a lower riparian on the Brahmaputra.
  6. Conclusion — the Union consults first, then renews on new numbers. Sample: New Delhi should consult the riparian States, revise the flow base with Dhaka and renew, because shared rivers need shared rules.

Administrator's brainstorm

As Joint Secretary (Bangladesh–Myanmar) in the MEA, a State government demands that the Ganga Water Treaty not be renewed unless its needs are met. What do you do?

My options: ignore the State, since treaties are a Union subject; stall talks until it agrees; or bring it into the preparation. Ignoring it risks a treaty no one implements; stalling lets December pass with no legal floor. I would ask the State for its water demand with data, set up a technical group with the Central Water Commission, and carry its strongest points into the negotiating brief. The stakeholders are the State’s farmers and Kolkata port, Bangladesh’s downstream users, and India’s wider ties with Dhaka, including power exports. The deciding principle is cooperative federalism within the Union’s constitutional role.