Monsoon 11.9% Below Normal, El Niño Strengthening: Editorial Urges Duty-Free Pulses After Edible Oil Duty Cut

The news

New Delhi. India’s rainfall during the southwest monsoon from June 1 to September 27 has been 11.9% below the historical average, and 23 of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions have cumulative deficits of more than 10%, The Indian Express notes in an editorial headlined ‘As monsoon falters, keep food imports open’. The worst-hit areas are the southern States, Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Kutch, and the Northeast. Rain was markedly deficient in June and August and was concentrated in a few regions: Odisha, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. The paper calls this a skewed distribution in time and space. Maharashtra has declared drought in nearly three-fourths of its tehsils, the administrative units below a district, and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has said the situation could be worse than the great famine of 1972. This magazine covered the Maharashtra drought on September 22 and 24; today’s new angle is a policy prescription on trade. El Niño, the periodic warming of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean that tends to weaken the Indian monsoon, has entered a strong phase. According to the editorial, global climate models expect it to become “very strong” from October to January-February and weaken to a moderate-to-weak event by April-May. Its effect on the monsoon has been felt since August. Kharif (monsoon-season) yields will suffer somewhat even though acreage has not fallen much. The paper argues that the bigger damage will come in the rabi (winter-spring) season. Deficient rain may leave little water in wells, ponds, reservoirs and aquifers, and El Niño tends to bring a warm, short winter, so a poor rabi harvest could follow a “not-so-great kharif”. The editorial praises the Fadnavis government for activating the State’s Drought Management Code. This triggers crop-loss assessment and relief such as waiver of land revenue and restructuring or pausing of farm-loan recovery, and the paper says other States should follow. It says the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana and the VB-G RAM G scheme will be tested on how quickly they pay insurance claims and start rural relief works. On supply, it notes that the Centre last week cut import duties on crude palm and soyabean oil from 16.5% to 11% and on sunflower oil to 5.5%, and already allows imports of arhar (tur) and urad at nil duty. It argues that imports of all other pulses, including yellow peas, chana and masoor, should also be duty-free. The Hindu reports from Bengaluru that the Opposition BJP and Janata Dal (Secular) have refused to join an all-party delegation the Karnataka government planned to send to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to seek Central drought assistance. The delegation follows a four-day special session of the State legislature on drought, farm distress and the Kasturirangan Committee report. The syllabus links are GS3 on food security, buffer stocks, and the public distribution system and trade, and GS1 on the monsoon and El Niño.

Static syllabus linkage

1. IMD measures the monsoon against a long period average. The India Meteorological Department compares seasonal rainfall with the Long Period Average (LPA), the mean rainfall over a 50-year base period, which for the June-September season is about 87 cm on the 1971-2020 base. For all-India seasonal rainfall, 96-104% of LPA is normal, 90-96% below normal and less than 90% deficient, while 104-110% is above normal and above 110% excess. For a subdivision or district, rainfall within 19% of the normal is classed as normal, 20-59% below as deficient and 60-99% below as large deficient. A shortfall of 11.9% puts all-India rainfall so far in the deficient range.
2. El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole shape the monsoon. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise above normal. It shifts rising air and rainfall eastwards, away from the Indian region, and is associated with many, though not all, Indian droughts. La Niña, the cool phase, tends to favour good monsoons. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole, in which the western Indian Ocean is warmer than the eastern, can offset part of El Niño’s effect.
3. Drought declaration follows the Manual for Drought Management. Drought is not a notified disaster under a separate law, but relief is governed by the Disaster Management Act, 2005 and the Ministry of Agriculture’s Manual for Drought Management, first issued in 2016 and later revised. The manual uses mandatory indicators such as rainfall deficit and dry spells, followed by impact indicators such as crop condition, vegetation indices, soil moisture and water availability. States declare drought and meet relief from the State Disaster Response Fund, and may seek additional help from the National Disaster Response Fund through a memorandum to the Centre, which is what Karnataka’s delegation would seek.
4. Trade tools for food prices include duties, export curbs and stock limits. The Centre can change the effective customs duty on imports by notification under Section 25 of the Customs Act, 1962, within the tariff rates set by the Customs Tariff Act, 1975. It can restrict exports under the Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act, 1992, and impose stock limits on traders under Section 3 of the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. Under the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, India’s bound tariffs on most farm goods are much higher than its applied tariffs, which gives it room to raise or cut duties without breaching its commitments. India imports more than half of the edible oil it consumes and a significant share of its pulses.

Why UPSC loves this

1. The monsoon and El Niño are standard Prelims material. UPSC has asked about El Niño, La Niña, the Indian Ocean Dipole and their effect on the Indian monsoon, and about how IMD defines normal and deficient rainfall. The subdivision count and LPA concept are the likely areas for statements.
2. Food security and trade policy is a GS3 theme. Questions have covered buffer stocks, the public distribution system, export bans on rice and wheat, and India’s dependence on edible-oil imports. The debate over whether trade policy should protect farmers or consumers fits a 15-mark question.
3. Drought management tests governance. Mains questions on disaster management have included drought, and ethics case studies often use relief distribution. The Drought Management Code and PMFBY claim settlement provide concrete administrative detail.

Analysis

1. The rabi season is where the real risk lies. The editorial’s central point is correct: a monsoon deficit shows up most in the following winter crop, because rabi depends on stored water in reservoirs, ponds and aquifers. Wheat, chana and mustard are the main rabi crops, and a warm winter reduces wheat yields at the grain-filling stage. The government should therefore plan now, while imports can still be contracted at reasonable prices, rather than wait for rabi output estimates in February and March.
2. Cutting duties early is cheaper than export bans and stock limits later. India has often responded to food-price spikes late, with export bans and stock limits that hurt farmers and traders and damage India’s reputation as a reliable supplier. Lowering import duties in advance lets the private trade build stocks, spreads imports over time and limits price spikes. The cut in edible-oil duties from 16.5% to 11% and nil duty on tur and urad are the right direction. Extending nil duty to yellow peas, chana and masoor would complete it for pulses.
3. The farmer’s interest must be balanced, not ignored. Open imports can depress prices for farmers who do harvest a crop, especially chana, which is a major rabi pulse. The counter-view is that duty cuts during a rabi sowing season send a signal against planting pulses. The balance is to keep duties low during the deficit period and restore them before harvest arrives, with procurement at MSP through PM-AASHA to support prices where they fall below MSP. The measure should have a published end date so that farmers can plan.
4. Edible-oil dependence is a structural weakness that droughts expose. India imports more than half its edible oil, so a domestic oilseed shortfall hits prices immediately. Duty cuts help consumers but do nothing for self-reliance. The National Mission on Edible Oils is meant to raise oilseed output, but drought years are when oilseed crops, mostly rainfed, suffer most. The long-term answer is irrigation for oilseeds and better seed varieties, not only lower tariffs.
5. Drought relief tests both States and the Centre. Maharashtra’s Drought Management Code shows the value of a ready-made protocol that starts crop-loss assessment and relief automatically. Karnataka’s situation shows the political side: the Opposition’s refusal to join the delegation turns a request for relief into a partisan contest. Drought assistance from the National Disaster Response Fund should depend on assessed need, and the process should be transparent enough that it is not seen as rewarding or punishing States. Quick PMFBY claim payments will decide whether farmers can sow the next crop.

Administrator's brainstorm