UPSC Darpan

International RelationsGS25 October 2026

Yemen’s government launches an offensive to retake Houthi areas after the Houthis seize Bab el-Mandeb

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The news

Aden, October 4. Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government said on Sunday it was launching a major military campaign to recapture all areas held by the Iran-backed Houthis, Reuters reports in The Indian Express. Presidential Leadership Council head Rashad al-Alimi said it would go on “until the country is liberated”. The Houthis have held the capital Sanaa and the northwest since 2014. Last month they took the Bab el-Mandeb strait and about 150 km of Red Sea coast, opening a new front in the war on Iran. They say they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites after 50 Saudi-led strikes in 12 hours. Saudi Arabia leads the air war, Yemeni forces fight on the ground and the US gives intelligence. Separately, Iran says Hormuz stays shut until seven conditions from the June Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with the US are met, while Iraq has loaded a 2-million-barrel tanker to sail through it, The Economic Times reports.

The chain in one line: Houthis take Sanaa in 2014 → Saudi-led coalition enters in 2015 → 2022 truce largely holds → war on Iran closes Hormuz → Houthis seize Bab el-Mandeb, government launches offensive

Static syllabus linkage

  1. Bab el-Mandeb is the southern gate of the Suez route. The strait separates Yemen from Djibouti and links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Ships from Asia to Europe pass it, then the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, avoiding the voyage round the Cape of Good Hope. Ships have a right of transit passage through such straits under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
  2. Resolution 2216 treats the Houthi takeover as illegitimate. The UN Security Council adopted it in April 2015 under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. It demanded that the Houthis withdraw from seized areas and give up their arms, and imposed an arms embargo on named Houthi leaders.

Why UPSC loves this

  1. GS2 asks how other countries’ wars land on India. The syllabus line is “Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests”. A question on how chokepoint closures change India’s oil and freight bills is a safe bet.

Prelims nuggets

  • Bab el-Mandeb lies between Yemen and Djibouti; the Strait of Hormuz joins the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
  • UNSC Resolution 2216 of 2015 on Yemen was adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
  • A VLCC, or very large crude carrier, carries about 2 million barrels of oil.

Analysis

  1. The offensive is about leverage at the table as much as land. A government that has not held its capital for twelve years cannot easily take mountain country from a hardened militia. The announcement is more likely meant to raise the price of a settlement. For India, a negotiated reopening of the sea lane is likelier than a military one.
  2. India faces two chokepoints with two different keyholders. Hormuz is shut by a state that sets conditions and talks through intermediaries; Bab el-Mandeb is held by a group that may not follow Tehran’s bargaining. A deal on the first would not automatically reopen the second. Iraq’s shipment shows the market’s answer: the seller takes the risk, so buyers still get oil.
  3. Lens — Strategic autonomy and partnership: India cannot take a side, but it can choose its dependencies. Saudi Arabia and Iraq supply oil and host millions of Indians, while Iran offers Chabahar, so any camp costs India somewhere. The autonomy it can afford is practical: more suppliers, reserves and routes. A thoughtful officer would keep naval escorts and diplomacy for safe passage and back a political settlement at the UN.

Possible Mains question

“The Red Sea and the Persian Gulf are now India’s most exposed trade frontiers.” Examine how West Asian conflict affects India’s energy and trade security and how India should respond. (15 marks, 250 words)

Model approach

  1. Directive — Examine. Break the issue into parts, show the effect on India, then weigh the response.
  2. Introduction — two straits, one exposure. Hormuz is closed and Bab el-Mandeb is in Houthi hands, so both routes are disrupted.
  3. Body — the cost lands through price, freight and supply. Higher crude and freight bills, strain on oil companies’ finances, and risk to seafarers and the diaspora.
  4. Body — India’s tools are diversification and presence, not alliance. Spread suppliers, build reserves, keep naval deployments, back UN mediation.
  5. Value addition and diagram. Draw the two straits and the Suez route with India’s crude arrows; cite the G7 stock release.
  6. Conclusion — resilience over reaction. Less dependence on any one sea lane turns a closure into a cost, not a crisis.

Administrator's brainstorm

You are Joint Secretary in the Petroleum Ministry. Refiners seek approval for a costly spot cargo moved through Iraq’s new route beyond Hormuz. How do you decide?

I would ask the oil companies for the true insurance, freight and security cost and compare it with the nearest alternative. I would approve only if cost and crew risk are within a margin set in advance, and record the reasons for audit. I would brief the External Affairs Ministry. Buying oil at any price is not energy security.