UPSC Darpan

Environment & EcologyGS314 October 2026

CEA chief says India may need 105–150 GW of new coal power by 2035

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The news

New Delhi. At the India Energy Summit on Tuesday, October 13, Central Electricity Authority (CEA) chairperson Ghanshyam Prasad said India may need more coal power than planned. The two papers’ figures differ. The Indian Express quotes 105–150 GW of new coal capacity by 2035, against 97 GW now planned. The Economic Times reports that the target was 97 GW (2023 reference year), was revised to 105 GW and may rise to 115 GW, needed around FY32–FY34; “the numbers aren’t final yet”, he said. Demand is running 45–50 GW above last year, peaking at 271 GW in May and September (ET). Coal plants generated nearly 10% more in April–August while hydropower fell over 11% after a deficient monsoon (IE). Plants have had no time for maintenance since March.

The chain in one line: Hot, dry year raises demand and cuts hydro → coal plants run flat out → solar cannot meet the 8 pm peak without storage → CEA chair seeks up to 150 GW more coal → stranded-asset risk

Static syllabus linkage

  1. The CEA is the statutory planner of the power system. The Central Electricity Authority is constituted under Section 70 of the Electricity Act, 2003. Under Section 3(4) it prepares the National Electricity Plan and notifies it once in five years.
  2. India’s climate pledges frame the coal choice. At COP26 in Glasgow (2021) India pledged net zero by 2070; the Glasgow Climate Pact called for a “phase-down”, not “phase-out”, of unabated coal power. The updated NDC under the Paris Agreement (August 2022) commits to a 45% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005 levels by 2030.

Why UPSC loves this

  1. Can India keep the lights on at night and still meet its climate pledges?. GS3 lists “Infrastructure: Energy” and “Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation”. Expect three dimensions: the evening peak and storage, coal’s cost and lock-in against batteries and pumped hydro, and the NDC and net-zero pledges.

Prelims nuggets

  • The CEA is a statutory body under Section 70 of the Electricity Act, 2003, and prepares the National Electricity Plan every five years.
  • India’s updated NDC (approved by the Cabinet on 3 August 2022): 45% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005 levels and about 50% cumulative installed power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030.
  • Pumped storage plants pump water to an upper reservoir with surplus power and generate from it when demand peaks.

Analysis

  1. Demand has outrun the plans, so the planner is redrawing them in public. A capacity plan rests on a demand forecast, and this year the forecast broke: heat raised cooling load and a weak monsoon raised irrigation pumping (ET). NTPC’s Gurdeep Singh said AI and data centres will add more; he expressly left electric vehicles out. The other view is that this is one El Niño year on a low base, as Prasad noted last year’s good monsoon kept demand down. Thirty-year plants should not be sized on one bad year.
  2. The real gap is evening storage, not renewable capacity. India expects to keep adding 50 GW of renewables a year, yet Prasad said limited storage stops surplus solar from serving evening and night demand (IE). Every gigawatt of evening load that batteries or pumped hydro carry is a gigawatt of coal not built; Green Energy Corridor Phase III, cleared by the Cabinet on September 30, funds 50 GWh of batteries. The other view is time: pumped hydro takes years to build and batteries cover hours, not a week-long heat wave.
  3. Lens — Sustainability: blackout risk is immediate, but stranded coal is the long-run cost. Plant coal stocks fell about 66% by end-September, against 23% last year (IE); a Ministry of Coal release put them at 18.205 MT on 10 October, steady above 18 MT since 29 September. Yet per a Rajya Sabha reply of August 2024, the official plan was at least 80 GW of new coal by 2031-32, about ₹6.67 lakh crore at the National Electricity Plan’s ₹8.34 crore per MW. If batteries get cheaper, such plants run fewer hours and become stranded assets.

Possible Mains question

Why does India’s power planner see a need for new coal capacity despite record renewable additions? Examine with reference to evening peak demand. (10 marks, 150 words)

Model approach

  1. Directive — Examine. Give the reasons, test each, and judge what would change them.
  2. Introduction — the 8 pm gap. Sample: India added over 50 GW of renewables in FY26, yet its power planner says up to 150 GW of new coal may be needed, because solar fades by evening.
  3. Body — demand outran forecasts in a hot, dry year. Demand 45–50 GW above last year, peak 271 GW, hydro down over 11%. Draw a daily load curve: solar rising at noon, falling by 6 pm, the evening peak filled by coal.
  4. Body — storage, not capacity, is the binding constraint. Batteries and pumped hydro are still small; Green Energy Corridor Phase III’s 50 GWh is a start.
  5. Body — new coal risks lock-in against net zero 2070. Value addition: an official minimum of 80 GW by 2031-32 at ₹8.34 crore per MW (Rajya Sabha reply, 2024).
  6. Conclusion — storage first, coal for the residual gap. Sample: The Power Ministry should tender evening storage first and approve only the coal storage cannot replace in time, retirement dates fixed now.

Administrator's brainstorm

As a State energy secretary, you must choose between signing a 25-year coal power purchase agreement and tendering battery storage for the evening peak. What do you do?

Options: sign the coal agreement, tender storage alone, or split the need. A 25-year agreement binds consumers to fixed charges whether or not the plant runs; storage alone may not arrive before next summer. I would get the hour-by-hour load curve from the State load dispatch centre, tender batteries for the evening hours they can cover now, and contract only the remaining firm gap, preferring a shorter term or an existing plant’s spare capacity. Stakeholders: households, farmers pumping in the evening, industry and the distribution company’s finances. I would place the comparison before the State regulator. The deciding principle: the consumer pays for whatever I sign, for decades.